In case you missed it… A new Fox News poll shows Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the all-important battleground state of Ohio; this is the third poll in four months to find Biden leading the president in the Buckeye State.
The New York Times highlighted the latest Ohio poll results:
“President Trump is facing the bleakest outlook for his re-election bid so far, with his polling numbers plunging in both public and private surveys and his campaign beginning to worry about his standing in states like Ohio and Iowa that he carried by wide margins four years ago.”
The Trump campaign recently went up on the air with a big advertising buy in Ohio, which “startled many Republicans,” according to the Times.
The polls aren’t the only warning sign for the Trump campaign in Ohio. Ohio’s 2020 primary election was the first time in 12 years that Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters.
The Columbus Dispatch noted that the percentage of Democratic primary voters surged from 50 percent in 2016 to 79 percent in 2020 in Franklin County, 43 percent to 67 percent in Hamilton County and 59 percent to 79 percent in Cuyahoga County. The Democratic surge wasn’t limited to Ohio’s urban counties — it also happened in traditionally deep-red suburbs like Delaware County (25 percent in 2016 to 52 percent in 2020), Warren County (20 percent to 42 percent) and Medina County (28 percent to 52 percent). (These figures are all from the preliminary, post-Election Night results).
The Daily Beast picked up on this suburban trend, as well, reporting on the large number of registered Republicans in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District that switched parties to request a Democratic ballot (again, these figures are preliminary):
“In this year’s primary, in this district that has been Republican (with a single one-term interruption) since we were bombing Adolf Hitler, about 8,800 Republicans requested Democratic ballots. In reverse, only about 1,200 Democrats requested Republican ballots. In addition, about 21,000 “unaffiliateds” (independents) took Democratic ballots, and just 13,000 of them took GOP ballots. Overall, 73,000 people requested Democratic ballots, and 68,000 requested Republican ballots. That’s in a district that Cook rates R+7.”
Whether you look at the polls, the primary election results or the economic picture — 2019 was Ohio’s worst year for jobs in a decade, and that was before the coronavirus hit — the Buckeye State is looking like increasingly tough terrain for Trump.
The Daily Beast: A Surprising Sign of a Democratic Revival in Ohio
Columbus Dispatch: Democrats surge in Ohio primary, but does that mean anything for November?